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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Can China beat US in gold reserves in 10 years?


China has set the most ambitious task on gold reserves and gold mining: take the country’s gold holdings from the current 1054 tonnes to a massive 10,000 tonnes in the next 10 years.

Is this grand task a realistic plan or a golden dream? Chinese officials say the dragon country wants to overtake the United States in gold reserves. America is the world leader in gold reserves. America owns 8133 tonnes of gold reserves that accounts for 76.5% of its foreign exchange reserves. Naturally, the Chinese plan is to ensure that bulk of its foreign exchange reserves--currently held in the forms of US dollar and bonds--is turned into gold reserves.

Unlike the United States, China has been acting slow all these years in building up its gold reserves. In 1981, China had 395 tonnes of gold holdings; it increased to 500.8 tonnes in 2001, and 600 tonnes in 2002. In April 2009, China officially announced that it has increased its gold holdings to 1054 tonnes. Since then, Chinese officials and People’s Bank of China have been meticulously chalking out plans to build up gold reserves in the next one decade.

China’s move to step up gold reserves got a moral boost when last month India—a large consumer of gold in the world—bought 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a big amount that Chinese would have never thought of purchasing. According to Zhang of the China Gold Association (CGA), India’s decision to buy IMF gold has been the real boost for China’s recent spirited moves to step up gold reserves.



“In view of the declining US dollar value, it is paramount that China steps up gold reserves. How to do this is the only question that China is debating these days. The possible steps include opening up new gold mines, aggressively going for gold mining, buying gold from the open market etc. All said and done, it is imperative that China needs to buy more gold,” Zhang points out.

China has emerged as the largest consumer and producer of gold in the world. It is, thus, natural that the Chinese mop up gold reserves to keep up its status as the No 1 gold consuming and producing nation in the globe, bullion analysts argue. In 2007, China overtook South Africa to become the world’s largest producer. The World Gold Council and global consultancy GFMS have already predicted that China will overtake India as the world's largest consumer as well.

China raised its national gold holdings in April by buying domestically mined gold. Bullion commentators like Mark Robinson are surprised as to why China has not yet shown any interest in buying gold from international markets. As a result of this, shares of Chinese gold mining companies have been rocketing all these months in the last one year. Shanghai and Hong Kong-listed shares of companies like Zijin, Shandong Gold and others are up 3x-4x this year alone. But the main factor at play is fear of a U.S. dollar devaluation.



Erik Bethel of seekingalpha.com points out the following major thrusts to explain how the Chinese appetite for gold reserves is simply rising and rising:
  • People in China are seriously starting to take notice of the fragility of the U.S. dollar and are loading up on commodities.
  • Chinese retail investors are also starting to take notice. As an example, there are "gold retail stores" popping up throughout major cities where individuals can buy mini gold bullion. There's even a China Gold Store located in Beijing Airport's new Terminal 3.
  • Another example is that while it was illegal to buy gold two years ago, Chinese citizens can now go to the bank and purchase "paper gold" certificates. Paper gold is basically the Chinese equivalent of an ETF and is supposedly backed by bullion held at the banks.
  • Chinese gold mining stocks are red hot and up 2-4x since last year.
China has US$2 trillon and is going to start deploying it in overseas mining assets.

source: www.commodityonline.com

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